Critics Choice Awards Analysis What This Years Winners Reveal

The Critics Choice Awards are often seen as one of the first major signs of how the Oscar race might unfold. After attending Sunday evening’s ceremony, it is clear why so many industry watchers are closely studying this year’s results. The big question remains the same every year: do Critics Choice Awards winners reliably predict Oscar winners?

This year’s ceremony delivered several expected wins and a few surprises. Most attention is focused on One Battle After Another, which won Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay for Paul Thomas Anderson. Meanwhile, acting wins for Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan raised new questions about Oscar momentum.

Let’s take a closer look at whether these wins truly signal what may happen at the Academy Awards.

Major Winners at the 2025 Critics Choice Awards

The Critics Choice Association (CCA) awarded top honors to a mix of critical favorites and unexpected choices.

Key Wins:

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another

• Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

• Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson

• Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

• Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

• Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

While some of these results aligned with industry expectations, others surprised even seasoned awards watchers.

Critics Choice Awards 2026 Big Winners One Battle After Another & More

Who Votes: Critics vs Academy Members

To understand whether the Critics Choice Awards are reliable Oscar bellwethers, it is important to understand who is voting.

• Critics Choice Awards voters:

  • Around 600 critics and journalists

  • Mostly based in the United States

  • Many view a large number of films as part of their profession

• Academy Awards voters:

  • Around 11,000 film industry professionals

  • About 25% live outside the U.S.

  • Includes actors, directors, writers, and craftspeople

Critics Choice Awards Full Winners List

There is very little overlap between these two groups. This difference alone explains why the results often do not fully match.

Why Critics Choice Can Influence Oscars Anyway

Even though the voting bodies are different, the Critics Choice Awards still matter.

They are:

• One of the first major televised awards shows

• Widely covered by media, social platforms, and trade publications

• Timed just before Oscar nomination voting

Because of this, the results may influence which films Academy members choose to watch during the critical nomination window. This indirect influence is why the Critics Choice Awards can still shape the Oscar race, even when they do not perfectly predict winners.

Voting Style Differences Matter

Another major factor is how winners are chosen.

• The Critics Choice Awards use straight voting

• The Academy uses a preferential ballot for Best Picture

Straight voting can benefit bold or divisive films with strong support, while preferential ballots reward films that are widely liked, even if they are not everyone’s top choice.

This difference has played a major role in past split decisions.

Best Picture: A Decade of Data

Looking at the past ten years helps put this year’s results into perspective.

Overlapping Best Picture Winners (CCA & Oscars):

• Spotlight

• The Shape of Water

• Nomadland

• Everything Everywhere All at Once

• Oppenheimer

• Anora

Split Decisions:

• La La Land (CCA) vs Moonlight (Oscars)

• Roma (CCA) vs Green Book (Oscars)

• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (CCA) vs Parasite (Oscars)

• The Power of the Dog (CCA) vs CODA (Oscars)

A Clear Pattern Emerges

In the split years, a clear pattern can be seen:

• Critics Choice Awards favored more artistic or highbrow films

• The Academy leaned toward more emotionally accessible or crowd-pleasing choices

This difference reflects the backgrounds of the voters and the voting systems used.

What This Means for ‘One Battle After Another’

With One Battle After Another winning Best Picture at Critics Choice, many are asking if it is truly safe as the Oscar frontrunner.

There are some potential challenges:

• Maintaining momentum through a long awards season

• Competing against films that may perform better on a preferential ballot

• Facing strong contenders like Sinners and Hamnet

However, recent history matters. The Critics Choice and Academy have agreed on Best Picture three years in a row, which strengthens the case for One Battle After Another.

Acting Wins: Are Elordi and Madigan Safe Bets?

The acting categories often show less consistency between Critics Choice and Oscar wins.

• Jacob Elordi’s win for Frankenstein was unexpected

• Amy Madigan’s supporting actress win for Weapons surprised many observers

While these wins boost visibility and momentum, acting races are often reshaped by:

• SAG Awards

• BAFTA results

• Guild support

At this stage, their Critics Choice wins are best seen as strong boosts, not guarantees.

Final Verdict: Are Critics Choice Awards Reliable Oscar Predictors?

The answer is sometimes, but not always.

• They are strong early indicators

• They influence visibility and conversation

• They align with Oscar results in many years, but not all

For Best Picture, One Battle After Another remains the smartest Oscar bet right now. For the acting races, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan have gained attention, but the road ahead is still long.

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